Restoring Growth and Prosperity

The Certified Fiscal Plan aims to ensure financial sustainability, efficient and affordable government services for the people and businesses of Puerto Rico, and a more competitive economy.

The 2020 Fiscal Plan is the road map for Puerto Rico’s recovery and transformation.

PROMESA mandates a Fiscal Plan that provides a method to achieve fiscal responsibility and access to the capital markets, and realistic revenue and expenditure estimates for a period of at least five years.

4 pillars of the Certified Fiscal Plan

Focus on implementation and government efficiency

Making investments to revitalize Puerto Rico

Implementing structural reforms to promote economic growth

Maximizing efficient investment of federal funds

Economic
Outlook

The Certified Fiscal Plan’s economic outlook following COVID-19 projects an economic decline and recovery similar to that experienced after Hurricane Maria.

The Certified Fiscal Plan projected that Puerto Rico’s economy would contract by 4% in fiscal year 2020 and projected a very mild 0.5% recovery in the current fiscal year of 2021 driven by federal aid programs.

The Certified Fiscal Plan projects that the economy would further decline in the fiscal year 2022 and 2023, followed by close to zero growth in 2024 and 2025. Simply put, the economy of Puerto Rico would contract over the five-year period.

Fully implementing the structural reforms and fiscal measures included in the Certified Fiscal Plan on a timely basis would enable Puerto Rico to move closer to a reality with lower-cost and reliable energy, a robust infrastructure, more incentives for people to enter the formal labor market, an improved regulatory and permitting system, and a more effective and efficient public sector.

However, implementing only these reforms would be insufficient to put Puerto Rico on a path to sustainable economic growth or allow Puerto Rico to avoid future government budget deficits.

Notwithstanding the full and timely implementation of the reforms, the Certified Fiscal Plan projects a central government budget deficit from the fiscal year 2032 onward – six years sooner than previously projected. The Certified Fiscal Plan projects a total budget surplus of about $8 billion between fiscal years 2020 and 2032 – a 65% decline compared to the about $23 billion surpluses previously projected.

Pillars of the
Certified Fiscal Plan

Puerto Rico is in crisis.

Puerto Rico is in crisis, and this crisis is an opportunity to accelerate change, to improve, to reengineer, and to rebuild. This crisis is a call to action for the Government to change the way it conducts business.

Focus on Implementation and Government Efficiency

Investments to Strengthen Puerto Rico

The Certified Fiscal Plan provides around $6 billion in total investments in fiscal years 2020 through 2025. 

        

 

 

 

Structural Reforms for Growth

The structural reforms in the Certified Fiscal Plan are in alignment with the Government. Meaningful progress on most reforms, however, has been delayed because of natural disasters and poor implementation.

 

 

 

 

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    • Human capital and welfare reform: Promoting participation in the formal labor force by creating incentives to work through Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and providing comprehensive workforce development opportunities.
    • Education reform: Transforming the K-12 education system to improve Spanish, Math, and English proficiency, and to improve graduation rates.
    • Ease of doing business reform: Reducing the obstacles to starting and sustaining a business by making it easier to obtain permits, register property, and pay taxes.
    • Power sector reform: Providing lower cost, more reliable, and cleaner energy through the transformation of PREPA.
    • Infrastructure reform: Prioritizing transformative capital investments with federal funds, for example from the Federal Highway Administration.

The Certified Fiscal Plan provides an updated forecast reflecting delays in structural reform implementation and outlining their positive effects going forward.

Disaster Relief Funds

The Certified Fiscal Plan includes the following funding estimates:

  • Hurricane-related: About $83 billion of disaster relief funding from federal and private sources over 15 years
        • About $48 billion from FEMA’s Disaster Relief Fund (DRF) for Public Assistance, Hazard Mitigation, Mission Assignments, and Individual Assistance
        • About $8 billion from private and business insurance pay outs
        • About $7 billion from other sources of federal funding
        • About $20 billion from the federal Housing and Urban Development (HUD) Community Development Block Grant – Disaster Recovery (CDBG-DR) program

  • Earthquake-related: $595 million from FEMA
 
  • COVID-19-related: About $14 billion from various federal programs, including CARES Act

Update on Debt Restructuring

  • Puerto Rico cannot afford to meet its current contractual debt obligations. Natural disasters and the pandemic, on top of a decade-long recession left Puerto Rico with substantially diminished resources and capacity.
  • In March 2020, the Oversight Board asked the U.S. District Court to pause the process of the restructuring of Puerto Rico’s debt. The Oversight Board has analyzed the effect of COVID-19 on the economy, and in November 2020 authorized the commencement of negotiations with creditors and other parties for an amended Plan of Adjustment for the Commonwealth.
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