Q&A
Demographic Trends in Puerto Rico: Migration and the Aging Population
What are the primary factors driving emigration and immigration?
(e.g., job opportunities, cost of living, education, criminality, health system, quality of life)
Angélica M. Rosario Santos & Hernando Mattei:
According to the literature, migration is very susceptible to several factors such as economic, cultural, political, and environmental changes. For example, after Hurricane Maria emigration had a peak in 2018. After that, emigration returned to similar values reported in 2007-2008. Also, in our presentation, we entioned the Migration survey sponsored by the Puerto Rico Chamber of Commerce. From this survey, the main reasons: (1) Economics, (2) Quaility of Life, (3)Education
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
Our analysis suggests that migration, while ever present, is highly influenced by economic instability and job opportunities. There is clear evidence of this in both the time series for total population and for net migration. Thus, any hope of stopping the ongoing migration wave must focus on access to good jobs and affordable living (i.e. access to housing in line with salaries).
Not all migration is uniform. In the hope that I am not advancing the presentation, how has this study seperated the impact of young families (women) out-migrating and reproducing in the United States than in Puerto Rico? How has this study captured the ages and education levels of out-migration and in-migration? Would be beneficial to test the hypothesis that under the net migration numbers, Puerto Rico is seeing older retirees in-migrating to the island in exchange for an out-migration of young people and families.
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
We understand your concern regarding the selection patterns of outmigrants and immigrants to Puerto Rico. Before delving into the demographics of who leaves or not, we must recognize that people are leaving. Indeed, migration is not uniform. Our studies have not done this, yet. We believe this question warrants further attention and will try to explore it in the future.
Thanks for this presentation. It would really be helpful to see some descriptive statistics about the "migrant"
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
The Puerto Rico Institute of Statistics produces a demographic profile of migrants. These reports include detailed analysis of selectivity of migrants in Puerto Rico, including their age distribution. We suggest you consult “Perfil del Migrante” for more information on these matters.
Have you compared PR to similar Islands? We have higher taxes, higher cost of living, and lower revenues…. Is the perfect scenario for our families to leave the Island and the families stay are reducing the size to survive? Comparing to similar countries/islands probably would be more real.
Angélica M. Rosario Santos & Hernando Mattei:
Regarding emigration and immigration, we compared PR with the 50 USA states. The majority of the emigration is to the mainland. In terms of fertility, PR shows patterns that are more consistent with other countries like South Korea, Japan, China, Cuba, etc..
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
Choosing a comparator or counterfactual is crucial to validate our conclusions. We are assuming this was meant for the comparator with other states. Indeed, the environment you describe is the perfect scenario that acts as a push factor concerning migration, and for those to remain to think carefully about their family composition. As shown in our study we did compare Puerto Rico to similar islands. In our study Puerto Rico is compared to Cuba, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago. Until 2010, Puerto Rico was behaving as many of these comparator countries and island-countries. Since then, the pattern has deviated from those patterns. Indeed, we believe these are better comparators than the other states
Is there a correlation between emigration and increasing of the aging? Is there a correlation between emigration and quality of life (health sytem, criminality, high cost of living)?
Angélica M. Rosario Santos & Hernando Mattei:
It is plausible that the emigration of younger people could collaborate to accelerate the aging of a population(effect on the pyramid). However, Puerto Rico has reported less than 2.1 children by women of reproductive age since 1998, but because of the demographic momentum, Puerto Rico continued increasing its population up to 2010. The reduction in births is dramatic and it would make that the base of the population pyramid continues to shrink over the years
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
Yes. Our study suggests the migration is the main driver of demographic aging. Studies conducted in other settings, have shown that economic environments and factors that shape quality of life are also push factors concerning outmigration. We have no evidence to the contrary in Puerto Rico. Our study on the role of environmental and economic shocks illustrates this.
What is the fertility of the puertorricans that emigrated to the US in comparison to the ones left behind? Why?
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
We conducted a study many years ago and found that earlier in the decade, in 2010-2015, the fertility rates were at comparable levels. We have yet to revisit this finding, but will do so in the coming months.
Hi what is the expected population in 5 and ten years
Angélica M. Rosario Santos & Hernando Mattei:
According to our probabilistic population projections, it is expected that Puerto Rico will report 2.8 million by 2030 and 2.5 million by 2040.
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
We have to be careful when issuing projections. All we can say is that under ongoing demographic conditions the population will be close to 2.8 million people in 2030. We have built a demographic monitoring platform that produces monthly estimates and we think the population is lower than the one indicated by the US Census Estimates. We would be happy to address to share our results if the opportunity presents itself
What are the demographic trends related to business creation and employment? What barriers are limiting entrepreneurship and job growth?
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
We do not have information on this matter, and it would be irresponsible to speculate on the matter.
How this demographic situation affects who will pay Prepa’s debt in the future
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
Dr. Alexis Santos has written about the role of Demography regarding the feasibility of the fiscal plans. We suggest you look at that writing. While written in 2019 the demographic dynamics, save for the complications due to the COVID-19 pandemic, remain the same.
Any data on how has Act 60-driven interstate immigration of high-net-worth individuals affected population and economic trends through workforce creation, if at all, on the island? Has the net population been positively impacted?
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
Aside from providing the tax breaks, Act-60 has affected housing dynamics in very specific areas of Puerto Rico. However, inter-state migration estimates cannot distinguish between those who migrate due to the historical cycle of circular migration, and this new wave of tax-break driven immigrants. However, we should not conflate both streams as they have very different origins (and motivations).
What best practices are there to support immigration policies and their effectiveness?
Angélica M. Rosario Santos & Hernando Mattei:
The first aim is to identify and understand the actual laws regarding immigration and try to see how they could be used to address the actual problem. A second step is to see how other jurisdictions of the USA have incorporated immigration policies and evaluate the possible effectiveness and plausibility of them in Puerto Rico.
Dr. Alexis Santos & Amilcar Matos Moreno:
As stated in our presentation, Puerto Rico does not control their immigration policies. It is difficult to entertain these ideas and voice them as solutions as the local government is limited in how much they can accomplish on these matters. In addition, any change in the migration would need political disposition at the Federal level. To support immigration we believe efforts should be geared towards creating stable economic environments, access to education opportunities and jobs, and availability of housing and healthcare services. All of which require substantial investment from the local government